Parisian Memorial League

THE DRAFT ROOM

draft value · per-game VORP · streaming-adjusted · 2019–2025

Not "who scored the most." The real question: did each pick return more than that draft slot usually returns at his position, measured against replacement level in this league's exact lineup. Read the method first; every number is defended.

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The Method

How every pick is graded

Three steps. All positional, all tied to how PML actually starts a lineup.

value over positional expectation
01
Per-game value over a real replacement
His points per game above the player you'd actually stream or roster given byes and injuries — not the last starter, not raw totals. That streaming-adjusted bar sits deeper than most people think (about QB14, RB35, WR34, TE14 in a 10-team league), set from PML's real lineup each year. Per-game means a guy who balled out then got hurt isn't a bust; the pick was good, the injury was luck.
02
Positional draft cost
Where he went at his position — the 15th QB off the board, the 40th RB. That's our in-league ADP: a real measure of what you actually spent, position by position.
03
Beat the slot?
value = his per-game VORP − what the Nth player at that position usually returns. Averaged across seven drafts. Positive means you got more per game than that positional slot typically gives. Picks whose player logged under 6 games are left ungraded — that outcome was availability, not draft skill.
pick value = (per-game points over a streaming-adjusted replacement) − (what the Nth-at-position pick usually returns)

Why this holds up: it's the industry-standard value-based-drafting approach (VORP), with the two refinements serious analysts actually use — a deeper, injury/streaming-adjusted baseline, and per-game rather than raw totals so availability luck doesn't masquerade as draft skill. Proof it's calibrated: average value by position lands at zero for QB, RB, WR and TE. Nothing is systematically favored.

replacement line, by season per-game points of the streaming-adjusted replacement — the bar VORP is measured against
Kickers and defenses are excluded. They're streamed week to week, not drafted for value — grading a lucky late K or D/ST as a "steal" is noise. PML started a K and a D/ST from 2019–2021 and dropped both in 2022; either way they don't count here.
where it's soft say it out loud before someone else does
  • Draft order is our ADP. We use where players actually went in PML, not an external consensus board — it measures value extracted in this room, not vs the wider market.
  • Per-game, min 6 games. A pick whose player logged fewer than six games isn't graded at all — we won't call a season-ending injury a "bust," but we also can't credit a three-game flash as a steal.
  • Replacement depth is a judgment call. QB14 / RB35 / WR34 / TE14 (last starter + a streaming/injury buffer). Reasonable and consensus-backed, not gospel; move the buffer and the elite premiums shift a little.
  • Flex is split 45/45/10 RB/WR/TE to set replacement level. Shift it and the RB/WR bar moves a hair.
  • Small samples, smoothed. The "Nth pick at position usually returns" curve pools all seven years with a ±2 window; deep positional slots have thin data.
  • It rewards outcomes, not process. Waiting on QB in a 1-QB league is correct strategy — this credits the ones who hit, and that's partly variance. Read it with that in mind.
Chapter I

The Acumen Board

Average value beaten out of every pick, positionally adjusted. Gold beats the slot, red gets beaten by it.

value per pick career average · skill positions · alumni greyed
beat the positional slotbeaten by ithit % = share of picks that returned positive value
Chapter II

The Hardware

Six trophies, handed out by the numbers. Screenshot the one with your name on it.

Chapter III

Hall of Steals

The 15 biggest wins over positional expectation. Every one reads "took him here, he finished there."

Chapter IV

Best Steal at Every Position

QBs don't get to hog the glory. The five biggest heists at each spot.

Chapter V

Hall of Shame

The early picks that went up in smoke — rounds 1–6, graded against what that positional slot should have returned.

Chapter VI

Steal of the Draft

The single best value pick of every season. A yearbook of larceny.

Chapter VII

The Round Report

Where the league drafts well and where it torches picks, once you grade every pick against its own position.

bust rate & hit rate by round bust = returned 25+ below its positional slot · hit = beat the slot at all
Early rounds carry the most downside because the bar is highest — a first-round RB is supposed to be elite, so when he isn't, the value crater is enormous. The upside lives late, where expectations are on the floor and a hit is pure profit.
Chapter VIII

Draft DNA

Every manager's value by round. Some hoard early hits, some are late-round assassins.

average value by round gold = beat the slot, red = torched it, empty = never drafted there
Chapter IX

Expectation vs. Reality

Every pick plotted: what its positional slot was worth, against what the player actually returned. Above the line you won; below it you lost.

value returned vs. positional draft cost each dot is one pick · hover for the story
Chapter X

By Position

Which positions this league actually finds value at — after adjusting for the slot.

average value by position near zero = the market prices it right on average
Parisian Memorial League · Draft Value Report · VORP over positional expectation · every ESPN draft board & box score, 2019–2025 · skill-position picks graded